Who Can Defeat Trump in 2020? An Analysis of Top Democratic Candidates

The Case for Joe Biden

Biden’s association with Obama brings name recognition

Biden served as vice president to the very popular Barack Obama for eight years. This association alone brings Biden considerable name recognition among Democratic voters. His time in the White House alongside Obama allows Biden to benefit from some of the nostalgia and popularity still associated with the Obama administration, without having to defend Obama’s actual policies or record in detail.

Biden leads in polls against Trump

Most public polls taken at this stage show Biden performing the best against Trump in a hypothetical general election matchup. According to polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics, Biden leads Trump by an average of 5.3 percentage points. While polls this far out from the election have limited predictive power, Biden’s consistent small lead suggests Democratic voters see him as the safest choice to beat Trump.

Perception of Biden as a moderate appeals to swing voters

After over three years of Trump’s chaotic, polarizing, and norm-breaking presidency, some Democratic voters believe a steady, moderate, and experienced candidate like Biden has the strongest chance of appealing to independents and disaffected Republicans. Biden proudly touts his ability to work with Republicans, build consensus, and compromise - qualities that may appeal to voters exhausted by partisan brinkmanship and endless gridlock in Washington.

The Persistence of Bernie Sanders

Sanders brings strong progressive ideals and energized base

Sanders has proven to be the candidate most able to energize younger, left-leaning parts of the Democratic base with his ambitious and unapologetically progressive policy agenda. Sanders staunchly supports universal healthcare, free public college, higher minimum wages, bold action on climate change, and greatly limiting the influence of money in politics. These policy positions continue to inspire passionate support, especially among younger voters.

Sanders benefits from authenticity and consistency

Sanders has also built goodwill through his decades-long consistency advocating progressive priorities, even when they were not popular positions. His authenticity and ability to energize infrequent voters and new voters could benefit Democrats in facing Trump’s anti-establishment message. Sanders’ willingness to embrace his democratic socialist label and vision for ‘political revolution’ galvanizes his core supporters.

Sanders still faces moderate scepticism within the party

However, Sanders’ unapologetically liberal ideology and rhetoric also give establishment Democrats pause about his electability. Some argue Sanders is too far left to win over moderate and conservative-leaning independents and swing voters - key parts of the coalition needed to defeat Trump. Sanders’ policy proposals and confrontational tone against industries like healthcare could turn off voters seeking unity and pragmatism after the Trump years.

The Persistent Unpredictability of Trump

Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory still lingers

Many Democrats were stunned when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 against most polling and predictions. That surprise victory demonstrated the potential for an anti-establishment outsider to overcome conventional wisdom. It also showed that polls alone do not dictate election outcomes, and that certain voting blocs like blue-collar men without college degrees strongly supported Trump in key swing states.

“Secret Trump voters” remain a concern

There is also a worry that some Trump voters may not openly admit their support to pollsters for fear of backlash, potentially skewing polls in a way similar to 2016. The persistence of Trump’s relatively high approval rating among Republicans (around 90% in recent polls) suggests he retains a passionate base likely to turn out in high numbers next November. Demographic shifts in key states also give Trump some upside toward repeating his surprise victory.

Economic factors could boost Trump’s campaign

If positive economic factors like low unemployment rates persist through the election, Trump will likely campaign as a president who has presided over continued growth. Strong economies have historically benefited incumbent presidents. An economic downturn before the election could change this dynamic, but as of now the economy provides a meaningful campaign advantage for Trump to emphasize.

Turnout Trends Offer Hope to Both Sides

Democratic enthusiasm signals potential for high turnout

Recent primary turnout has shattered records in state after state, a trend that if continued through to November could herald a re-energized Democratic base bent on removing Trump from office. High turnout in the 2018 midterms presaged Democratic gains and offers a model for defeating Trump with engaged grassroots organizing. Widespread voter registration efforts could bring new voters into the process motivated by their opposition to Trump’s policies.

Trump’s fervent base also poses an enthusiasm threat

However, Trump’s base has also proven highly enthusiastic and eager to vote for their candidate every time. Republicans defied midterm trends by increasing turnout in some states like Florida in 2018, aided by the president’s frequent rallies and social media presence motivating core supporters. Democrats will need to match and exceed this enthusiasm across Midwest battleground states to overcome narrow polling leads and potential hidden Trump voters reluctant to share views. High voter turnout overall increases uncertainty for forecasting the election outcome.

Uncertainty Remains the Only Certainty in 2020

Nine months is a long time in politics, and much can change between now and November that alters candidate strengths and voter preferences. Economic conditions, external global events, gaffes or stumbles by candidates, and the candidates’ relative performance in debates all may influence voters and public polls yet to occur. Both parties also face choices around candidate unification and messaging focus between now and the general election that could influence turnout efforts. While Biden appears best positioned now, elections are always unpredictably competitive. In the end, Democrats must simply focus on maximizing engagement across demographic groups to best overcome the obstacles against unseating an incumbent president.