Turkey’s Long and Winding Road to the European Union
The Decades-Long Process
Turkey has been pursuing EU membership since 1959, making its formal application in 1987. Over half a century of progress and setbacks underscore the immense challenge of navigating the complex political and economic integration required. A customs union established in 1995 brought the economic relationship closer, yet left Turkey with obligations without a say like other associated partners. Approval to begin accession talks finally came in 2005, yet even the quickest prior bids needed 2.5 years on average to conclude successfully.
Snail’s Pace of Technical Requirements
Of the 33 required policy chapters to be fulfilled, Turkey has managed to complete just one in over 15 years of negotiations. Four others were in line from the start, and 12 more have merely been opened for review. Significant further work remains on most, classified as needing “considerable effort” or only at an “early stage” of alignment. Slovakia holds the record for completing talks in under 3 years, while current candidates average around 5; Turkey has resoundingly broken all records for slowest applicant by far.
Cyprus Issue Poses Fundamental Barrier
The long-divided island of Cyprus remains a hugely problematic obstacle, with the Republic unwilling to support Turkey’s bid without a resolution. This has frozen 8 negotiation chapters and blocked 6 more from advancing. Finding an agreeable solution acceptable to all sides seems as distant as ever. Unless a breakthrough emerges, Cyprus’ veto indefinitely prevents further progress.
Political Opposition from France and Beyond
France actively blocks 3 additional chapters in open opposition to Turkey’s membership. Public sentiment also favors an alternative “privileged partnership” over full accession. Germany likewise relegates Turkey to partner status due to matters of identity, human rights, and a large population second only to its own within the EU. Others such as Austria and the Netherlands similarly harbor strong doubts. Overcoming widespread political resistance poses a possibly insurmountable barrier.
Distant Prospect of Fulfilling Copenhagen Criteria
Even if these political problems could somehow be resolved, serious questions remain about Turkey’s ability to fulfill the Copenhagen criteria of a stable democracy protecting freedoms like expression any time soon. Recent policy direction under strengthened executive powers moves further from European values. The prospect of satisfactorily aligning legal and political systems across over 30 technical areas within this decade looks improbable, if not altogether unrealistic.
A Privileged Partnership Could Offer Benefits
Rather than an unrealistic full membership goal, a privileged partnership status could allow closer cooperation to the mutual benefit of Turkey and the EU. Visa-free travel, eased customs and inclusion in programs like reduced roaming fees would make a tangible difference for Turkish citizens. Turkey’s strategic location makes excluding it completely from cooperation unfeasible; finding flexible, pragmatic solutions despite political differences could open more positive avenues.
Withdrawal From Process Seems Wisest path
After over half a century invested, the hard facts strongly suggest Turkey withdrawing its membership application would be the wisest course of action. Installed political obstacles like Cyprus’ veto and absence of support from key countries seriously undermine any prospects of conclusion this decade, if ever. Redirecting efforts toward a realistic “privileged partnership” accommodating mutual interests presents a more constructive path forward for Turkish-EU relations. Continuing a clearly futile candidacy serves no purpose and wastes time better spent on establishing practical cooperation.
Future Developments Could Reopen Prospects
While prospects appear dim currently, geopolitical winds can shift suddenly. Turkey maintaining strong trade and diplomacy with Europe ensures reconsideration remains possible if circumstances change substantially. Cyprus may reach a breakthrough consensus allowing past issues to finally resolve. Attitudes within member states on identity and values evolve over generations. Should a future scenario emerge where political stars align and technical readiness exists, the door for Turkish EU membership need not be closed permanently. For now though, a pragmatic pivot away from the process provides the clearest strategy.
